Handicapping small college basketball tournaments requires a unique approach compared to regular season games or major tournaments. Here are key strategies to consider when betting on these events:
In small conference tournaments, teams often play multiple games in quick succession. Pay close attention to teams coming off byes versus those playing back-to-back games3. Teams with more rest tend to perform better:
· Favorites of -6.5 or more coming off a bye have covered the spread 54.9% of the time when facing opponents playing back-to-back days3.
· Underdogs or small favorites (-3 or less) off a bye have an even stronger 63.1% against-the-spread (ATS) record in similar situations3.
When teams meet for the third time in a season during a tournament:
· The team coming off a bye has covered 54.9% of the time3.
· The UNDER has hit at a 56.3% rate at places like MyBookie, likely due to increased defensive familiarity3.
Not all teams approach these tournaments with the same enthusiasm:
· Some mid-major teams view these games as their "Super Bowl" and are highly motivated5.
· Teams from major conferences might be disappointed about missing the NCAA Tournament and lack focus5.
Oddsmakers often focus more on major conference tournaments, creating opportunities in smaller events:
· Look for value in less publicized games, especially on busy betting days like Wednesdays and Saturdays5.
· The NIT and CBI tournaments often have softer lines due to less public attention5.
Unlike the NCAA Tournament, some smaller tournaments allow higher-seeded teams to play at home:
· This can be a significant advantage, especially for teams from smaller conferences5.
Strong defensive teams can often control the pace in tournament settings:
· Look for teams that excel in defensive metrics and can dominate on that end of the court6.
The pace of tournament games can differ from regular season matchups:
· Analyze how teams' preferred paces match up and how this might affect scoring9.
Factor in the quality of opponents teams have faced throughout the season:
· This can help gauge how prepared teams are for tournament competition9.
By focusing on these factors, you can gain an edge when handicapping small college basketball tournaments. Remember to always consider the unique dynamics of each event and the specific motivations of the teams involved.
Frankly the best place to go for betting winners is OffshoreInsiders.com from Grandmaster Sports Handicapper Joe Duffy. Given the nickname, Mr. March in the 1980s because he owns conference tournaments, though the Final 4, his place are there.
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